Federico Grinberg

Documents spillovers from stablecoin-based FX to traditional FX markets using data on four USD-pegged stablecoins and 27 fiat currencies. Shows that exogenous increases in stablecoin net inflows depreciate local currencies and widen CIP deviations, with spillovers growing disproportionately when intermediary capital is depleted.

Proposes a novel measurement of cryptocurrency mining using customs data on hardware exports from dominant producers. Finds that mining surges respond to global factors like crypto prices and hardware costs, while domestic factors — electricity prices, temperature, and capital controls — shape the cross-country distribution.

Examines whether deteriorating household balance sheets weakened U.S. monetary policy transmission after the global financial crisis. Finds that while consumption responsiveness declined, household indebtedness is not the culprit — more indebted and less liquid households are actually the most responsive, and their population share grew.

Identifies causal effects of cross-border bank lending on emerging market macro-financial conditions using granular instrumental variables. Shows that cross-border credit eases financial conditions, appreciates exchange rates, narrows spreads, and expands GDP, while commonly used instruments correlated with global financial conditions yield amplification bias.

Models how CBDC introduction affects bank deposits through two opposing margins: richer households increase deposits due to higher rates (intensive margin), while poorer households switch to CBDC (extensive margin). The net deposit loss is larger in developing economies, but the impact on lending is quantitatively small if banks access alternative funding.

Presents a vision for a multilateral platform to improve cross-border payments, FX transactions, risk sharing, and financial contracting. Leverages a common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption to reduce transaction costs and increase market efficiency, completeness, and access.

Shows that financial conditions disproportionately affect the lower tail of GDP growth forecasts across 11 advanced economies. Loose initial financial conditions reduce near-term downside risks but increase them at longer horizons — an intertemporal trade-off amplified by rapid credit-to-GDP growth.

Studies the role of nominal price rigidities in accounting for low CPI inflation after large currency depreciations. Using a small open economy model with menu-cost frictions calibrated to micro data from Mexico's CPI, finds that nominal rigidities in retail prices are quantitatively small and short-lived during large depreciations. The incomplete exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is largely driven by falling real wages caused by negative real shocks and nominal wage stickiness.

Comprehensive IMF assessment of stablecoin markets, covering design taxonomies, reserve management, regulatory gaps, systemic risk channels, and implications for the international monetary system.

Flagship IMF analysis of systemic risks arising from the growing crypto ecosystem, including DeFi protocols, stablecoins, and their interconnections with traditional financial markets.